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Chairman of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, has projected that the naira could strengthen to as low as N1,100 to the dollar this year, driven by the Federal Government’s industrial and economic reform policies.
Dangote, however, noted that the only factor that could prevent such appreciation is if the Federal Government deliberately allows the naira to remain weaker in order to boost naira-denominated revenue.
He made the remarks on Tuesday, February 17, 2026, while speaking at the launch of the Nigeria Industrial Policy in Abuja. The event was attended by Vice President Kashim Shettima and other top government officials.
What he is saying
Dangote said ongoing reforms are already yielding positive results, particularly for manufacturers.
- “I mean, today, if you look at it, Your Excellency, I believe with the policies that you have implemented in government, people now have started seeing the result, and manufacturers are very, very happy,” he said.
He added that reducing imports and strengthening local production would ease pressure on foreign exchange demand and support currency appreciation.
- “Today, the dollar is N1,340. Mr. Vice-President, I can assure you that, with what I know, by blocking all this importation, the currency this year will be as low as N1,100 if we are lucky. The only thing is for, maybe, the government to stop the naira from getting stronger so that they will keep collecting more naira.
- “But it’s a catch-22 situation where, now, if the naira gets stronger, it means that everything will go down. Everything will go down because we are an import-based country, which we shouldn’t be. What we should be doing is manufacturing all the things that we need.”
Dangote also called for stronger protection for local investors through targeted incentives and improved infrastructure, especially reliable electricity, which he described as critical to industrial growth.
He stressed that while the industrial policy is well-conceived, it must be backed by full support for industrialists to achieve job creation and sustainable economic growth.
What this means
If the naira appreciates toward N1,100/$1 or even N1,000/$1, the potential economic impact could include:
- Reduced cost-push inflation
- Lower prices for imported goods and industrial raw materials
- Improved household purchasing power
- Greater macroeconomic stability
- Increased investor confidence
However, analysts caution that exchange rate performance depends on multiple variables, including oil prices, foreign capital inflows, monetary policy discipline, and global economic conditions.
Sustained appreciation would require consistent forex supply, fiscal discipline, and continued structural reforms aimed at boosting domestic production and exports.
What you should know
In a related development, billionaire businessman Femi Otedola recently projected that the naira could strengthen to below N1,000 per dollar before year-end, citing the attainment of full capacity by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
Otedola, Chairman of First Holdco, described the refinery’s ability to supply up to 75 million litres of petrol daily as a potential turning point for Nigeria’s foreign exchange outlook, noting that reduced fuel imports could significantly ease pressure on the naira.
